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Continued concern over the debt burden of the developed world combined with the deeply divided political landscape in Washington, D.C. has many investors questioning the sustainability of the economic recovery following the Great Recession of 2008. Growth has slowed and we believe the chance of revisiting a recession has increased to approximately 35%. However, the most likely scenario remains that global growth will continue at its modest pace, which could offer an upside surprise for an increasingly bearish-biased market.

In the first half of 2011, the stock markets had been fairly cooperative. For the most part, we saw gains from the majority of the indices. Since then, the markets have been less than hospitable. While the past few years have taught us to be comfortable on a rollercoaster ride, the past couple of months have been more like riding on a Yo-Yo.